Forecast
Inflation Drift
Inflation is easing, but persistence risk remains in shelter and services.
Key takeaway
Disinflation is progressing, but not evenly. Sticky categories still matter.
Current conditions
Headline measures have improved, though service-linked persistence remains a central issue.
Outlook
The most likely path is continued moderation with occasional setbacks.
Risks
Commodity shocks, wage persistence, and renewed housing pressure could slow progress.
Methodology and notes
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